Churn risk alerts and winback

B2B churn is silent

A subscription business gets a cancellation event. A wholesale business gets nothing at all. The purchase order simply does not arrive, and because there was never a scheduled date, no system notices. The account stays in your customer list looking exactly like a customer, and three or four months later somebody says “we haven’t heard from them in a while.”

By then they have a new supplier and a relationship with someone else’s sales team.

The whole job of churn detection in B2B is to convert that silence into a signal, early, while a phone call still works.

How an account is judged at risk

RevLogic knows each customer’s average order cycle — the mean gap between their orders. Their expected reorder date is their last order plus that cycle. Once they pass it, the question is not whether they are late but how late, relative to their own rhythm.

That ratio produces a churn-risk grade:

• Low — inside or barely past their normal cycle. Nothing to do.
• Medium — meaningfully overdue. Worth a call this week.
• High — far enough past their rhythm that the relationship is genuinely in question.

Because the yardstick is per customer, the grades are comparable across a mixed book of business. A weekly-reordering distributor at high risk and a semi-annual dealer at high risk are both, in their own terms, in trouble — and both belong on the same list.

Winback: a separate queue on purpose

Some accounts are past saving with a “just checking in” call. They need a different conversation, often a different offer, and sometimes a different person making the call.

The Winback page is a standalone list of customers who have gone silent beyond a threshold you set in Settings. It is deliberately not mixed into the daily call list, for a practical reason: in most stores the long-lapsed group is large, and if it shared a queue with this week’s slippage it would drown it. The urgent list stays short and workable; the winback list is there when you have time to prospect your own history.

Each winback row carries what a sales team needs to open the conversation — what the account used to spend, when they last ordered, and what they used to buy — and links straight through to their customer card.

Reporting on revenue at risk

Knowing which accounts are at risk is a sales-team problem. Knowing how much money is behind them is an owner’s problem, and it is a different question.

RevLogic writes each customer’s churn-risk band onto their Shopify customer record as a report dimension. In Shopify Analytics or ShopifyQL you can then group your own sales data by churn risk and answer the question directly: what share of last year’s revenue came from customers who are now high risk? For most stores that number is the most persuasive thing in this entire product. See RevLogic in Shopify Analytics.

What happens after the flag

A churn flag is the beginning of a call, not the end of a workflow. From the customer card, your sales team can see the full picture — what they used to buy, what they have stopped buying, their revenue trend — then log the call, set a follow-up, and build a quote if the conversation goes well. All of it in the same screen, all of it inside the Shopify admin.